Saudi-Israeli Normalization Hinges on Palestinian Statehood Amid Gaza Crisis
Earlier this year, Saudi Arabia signaled a shift in its stance on Palestinian statehood, suggesting that a public commitment from "Israel" to a two-state solution might suffice for Riyadh to normalize relations. However, the ongoing genocide in Gaza has reignited public outrage across Saudi Arabia and the Middle East, reportedly prompting Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) to make "Israel's" recognition conditional on tangible steps toward establishing a Palestinian state, according to Saudi and Western sources cited by Reuters.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is keen to secure normalization with Saudi Arabia but faces significant domestic resistance to any concessions for Palestinian statehood. Such steps could destabilize his fragile coalition, making progress on the issue politically fraught.
In the meantime, Riyadh and Washington are working toward a more modest defense agreement before U.S. President Joe Biden leaves office in January. This deal, which wouldn't require Senate approval, aims to bolster U.S.-Saudi military ties through expanded joint exercises, enhanced training and logistics, and potential deployment of a Patriot missile battalion to improve Saudi missile defense.
According to officials, full defense cooperation would necessitate a treaty requiring two-thirds Senate approval—an outcome unlikely unless Saudi Arabia recognizes "Israel." The proposed agreement would also encourage Saudi investment in advanced technology like drone defense systems.
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Abdelaziz al-Sagher, chairman of Saudi Arabia's Gulf Research Institute, clarified that Riyadh seeks a security pact allowing increased military cooperation and arms sales but not a comprehensive defense treaty akin to those with Japan or South Korea.
Complicating matters is the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House. Trump's previous Israeli-Palestinian "peace plan" excluded Palestinian statehood, creating uncertainty over whether Riyadh will finalize the deal with Biden or wait for a possible Trump administration.
The situation underscores the delicate balance between Saudi ambitions for stronger defense ties with the U.S. and the political challenges of addressing the Palestinian issue amid regional turmoil.